Housing and land development construction activity forecast to increase

Land development sector activity in Victoria is forecast to rise almost 40 per cent by 2030, shrugging off recent stagnant growth and concerns around persistent housing stock deficiency.

New data released by Civil Contractors Federation Victoria reveals the housing infrastructure sector will benefit from an increasing contraction of investment and activity in transport construction.

“Housing is arguably the biggest public policy priority across Victoria and Australia at present,” CCF Victoria interim Executive Director Annie Kessell said.

“As the state’s population continues to soar, the Government will only prioritise and accelerate housing stock rollout further.

“This will rely heavily on civil contractors to deliver the enabling infrastructure and services, such as demolition, land clearing and development and subdivisions construction. This is good news for our members and the broader industry.”

Key findings in the Victorian Civil Construction Outlook: Housing and Land Development report, produced by Oxford Economics Australia, include:

• Total subdivisions construction activity is forecast to rise from $1.9 billion in FY2025 to $2.7 billion in FY2030, a 39% increase and an average $2.3 billion per annum.
• Victoria had a record population increase in FY2023 of 182,000 persons, remaining elevated through FY2024, widened the state’s dwelling stock deficiency.
• Dwelling commencements are expected to rise 52% to $43 billion by FY2030.

Over the past two-and-a-half years, the Victorian Government’s ambitious Housing Statement, setting out its goal to build 800,000 new dwellings by 2034, has dominated public headlines.

The Government’s Plan for Victoria[1], released in early 2025, prioritises the increasing densification
of urban areas to accommodate a growing population that’s forecast to hit 10 million by mid-century, while offsetting sprawl on the metropolitan fringe.

Parallel to this, Infrastructure Victoria’s overarching recommendation in its 30-year Infrastructure Strategy is to make more use of urban space and existing infrastructure[2] in support of the same policy outcomes.

“This does present challenges, namely refurbishing existing civil infrastructure in complex brownfields developments, which can prove more costly to taxpayers in the long run, compared to greenfields projects,” Ms Kessell said.

“However, Victoria’s civil contractors are adept at working within strict parameters to deliver the infrastructure required.

“Moreover, our focus remains on working collaboratively with Government to identify other levers available to address issues such as productivity and fixing procurement settings that level the playing field for smaller contractors and subcontractors.

“Fairer VET funding is another lever available to correct the imbalance created by the Free TAFE initiative.

“While well-intentioned, it has produced market distortions by concentrating skills funding almost exclusively within the public VET system. This effectively excludes industry-led RTOs from accessing sufficient funding support to deliver civil training at scale required by industry[3].

“Despite the ‘normalisation’ of government spend reducing in infrastructure, we remain optimistic for the future of the enabling civil construction that the Victorian community relies on.”

Download the White Paper at: www.ccfvic.com.au/position-papers/

[1] https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/planforvictoria

[2] https://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/projects/victorias-30-year-infrastructure-strategy-update

[3] https://www.ccfvic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/2025-08-01-CCF-Submission-Vic-Parl-Student-Pathways-into-Industry-FINAL.pdf

Housing and land development construction activity forecast to increase

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